Ron Paul to Foil McCain? Not This Year

The LA Times thinks so. They present Paul’s refusal to endorse McCain along with his supporters’ efforts to take over the Republican Party process at local levels as evidence.

The last three months Paul’s forces, who donated $34.5 million to his White House effort and upwards of one million total votes, have, as The Ticket has noted, been fighting a series of guerrilla battles with party establishment officials at county and state conventions from Washington and Missouri to Maine and Mississippi. Their goal: to take control of local committees, boost their delegate totals and influence platform debates.

The dissatisfaction with John McCain as the nominee is real, and it seems like the Republican Party may be ready for a changed direction and ripe for the picking. The election itself, however, isn’t.

Why?

Because despite what the pundits in Washington, LA, and New York think, Barack Obama is not electable. What the LaWashYork people don’t realize is that there is a whole country out there that isn’t withing their cities’ limits. And if you are intellectually honest with yourself about how THAT country feels, it’s obvious he can’t win.

Can he win the black vote? Obviously. Can he win the upper class liberal white vote? Absolutely–there seems to be an abundance of feelings of guilt about slavery and romantic novelty of his nomination. Young college kids? If they’re still gung ho about doing the opposite of what their parents do by November. But what about Hispanics? Please, be serious. What about working class white voters? They’re likely to see their choices as a moderate war hero who looks like them and a guy with a funny name who doesn’t. And what about the middle class soccer moms and t-ball dads? They are the meaty part of the bell curve–moderate, just like McCain.

This whole scenario is working out perfectly for the Republicans, at least for this election. The problem is, they have probably won the battle and lost the war. That feeling of frustration about the direction of the Party is not going to go away. Which leads us to…

Hillary Clinton in 2012. The longer Hillary Clinton drags this fight out, the worse Obama’s chances. Think she’s sticking around to be Vice President? Nah–she’s already had that job. Right now her best chance to get to the White House is good ol’ John McCain. Four more years of the same (no matter how he tries to distance himself from Bush), an opposing party still trying to find its identity, and the path will be cleared for her. It won’t hurt that Obama and Gore will be out of the way as well, both having proven they can’t win for the Democrats.

What about John Edwards? C’mon. The Democrats won’t be able to nominate another white male for quite a while. That would be seen as a step backwards for them.

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Comments

this seems like a reasonable prediction… i’m not sure that anything radical like ron paul or somebody of his same mind gaining the republican nod is in the cards anytime soon.

Very interesting analysis. I think that McCain is a lot more moderate than he can afford to show during the electoral process. He scares me with his support for the war, but I wonder if it’s all a smoke screen? I’d love to see the Ron Paul support add up to some more members of congress with like minds. That would make my contributions feel like they were worth it.

I’m probably completely wrong though. Watch HC get the nomination and win the whole election. Then, of course, I’ll just delete this post and pretend it never existed.

HM, I think that’s where the RP movement could do the most good–congress and locally.

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