Amazingly, Hurricane Dean has stayed true to the forecast.Â NHC reports winds of 100mph and central pressure of 979mb.Â Dean is growing but does not have much time before land fall this afternoon.Â Dean has always been a fast moving storm…..this lead to it’s eventual demise. Â There are not many resorts in this area of Mexico so don’t expect the TV to be full of ‘weather cowboys’ this afternoon.Â Â What little damage occurs this afternoon will be masked by what happened yesterday.
Invest 92L is not going to make it.Â Unfavorable winds aloft hamper development before any potential land fall with Florida.Â Â We will just have to wait for the next glimmer of hope.
From the Assoicated Press (Mark Stevenson)
Dean’s path takes it directly through the Cantarell oil field, Mexico’s most productive. The entire field’s operations were shut down just ahead of the storm, reducing daily production by 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas.
At $75 a barrel (that’s a hair low), that is $202million dollars a day. Just think of the tax money the gov’ment is losing in taxes. You would think they would do something about these storms with this much money on the line. Obviously Georgina Hernandez agrees with me.
“If only the government would lend us a hand,” said Georgina Hernandez, 59, whose three children all lost their homes in the town of Los Limones.
Do you think she sees any of that $202million a day?
At 5:00pm on 8/21/2007, Dean is back over the open waters in the Bay of Campeche.Â Like many before, the Yucatan has put a hurting on Dean, but it has survived.Â Winds are down to 80mph and the pressure now stands at 960mb. Â For this one day only…..it is safe to drink the water in Cancun because it has all fallen from the sky.
Â Do you have a guess where Dean will go next?Â The NHC thinks it’s pretty straight forward that the other east coast will get cleaned up with a CatÂ 2 stormÂ Wednesday afternoon.Â Can they be rightÂ about the same storm twice?Â
Also, don’t look at Mexico too long.Â Invest 92L has formed south of Bermuda Island and has a chance to be a weak hurricane while hitting the space coast of Florida.Â If that comes becomes true the media will go crazy!
Unless your living under a rock, you have heard that Hurricane Dean is hitting the Yucatan peninsula right now (8/21/2007 early morning).Â It was a very strong storm, but land and hurricanes just donâ€™t get along.Â The storm dropped from a central pressure of 906mb to 935mb in just three hours (from 5:00am to 8:00am EDT).Â Sustained winds decreased from 165mph to 125mph in that same period.Â Just think about how strong it could have been if Mexico had of stayed out of the way.
Itâ€™s amazing how accurate the forecast models have been for this storm.Â The first runs from August 15th had this storm hitting Cancun.Â Instead it nailed Majahual. Â Thatâ€™s only about 250miles to the south. Â Google Earth shows some beautiful pictures from this area.Â I think Iâ€™ll head down to The Playa Tequila Club once they have had some time to rebuild.Â New hotels are nice.
Keep your fingers crossed that Dean can cross the Yucatan quickly.Â Once back over the warm smooth waters of the gulf, it should be able to gain strength again.Â Likely this one storm will clean up two parts of Mexico.
At 2:00pm EDT, the NHC is calling Dean a Category 1 hurricane with a central pressure of 960mb and sustained winds of 85mph.Â So as Jimmy Buffett says, â€œit ainâ€™tâ€¦nothin but a breezeâ€.Â
I’ve convinced our resident Hurrinerd, JCowan, to do some guest blogging here during hurricane season. He is way more into hurricanes than I am, plus it will save him the time of coming here to correct my misinformation if I ever try to write about one.
Hopefully he will one day spin this off to his own blog. He can be the “Lavergne and Shirley” to my “Happy Days”.
Hurricane Dean…this is getting pretty scary for the folks in Mexico as it looks like it is picking up. I have a friend who really geeks out over hurricanes, and I’ve been encouraging him to start blogging on them. I know he reads this (sometimes), so I’m calling him out publicly now. START!
Overheard on the radio this morning…
“If Shakespeare, Socrates, and Galileo were alive today they’d all own adult bookstores.”
I also heard an oldie but a goodie…
“Is that possible–to time travel speed?”
My jaw hurts, but that doesn’t make me ugly.